Tournament History: Most & Least "Mad" Brackets

    
March 11th, 2009

This chart shows the historical "Assessed Risk" percentages for each final bracket since 1985 (the start of the 64 team tournament). Each bracket is assigned an “Assessed Risk” which evaluates the unlikelihood of the final results by measuring against past year performances of the tournament seeds.

 

Basically, the higher the number you see below, the more surprising the final result was. Note that 2000 was the most shocking bracket of all-time, with two #8 seeds and a #5 in the Final Four. There was also two #10 seeds that made the Sweet Sixteen that year, and only one of the #2 seeds even made the Sweet Sixteen. On the flip side, the last two NCAA Tournaments have gone according to plan. In 2008, all #1 seeds made the Final Four. While in 2007, the Elite Eight was composed of 4 #1 seeds, 3 #2's, and a #3. Boring stuff indeed.

 

While making your selections in CHN/PickManager's $100 Million Bracket Challenge, you can view the “Assessed Risk” at the bottom of your bracket. You may wish to compare your risk percentage to the historical risk percentages of the final brackets since 1985.

 

Year

Assessed Risk

NCAA 1985

23.88%

NCAA 1986

30.05%

NCAA 1987

17.71%

NCAA 1988

22.96%

NCAA 1989

25.46%

NCAA 1990

33.81%

NCAA 1991

24.77%

NCAA 1992

23.88%

NCAA 1993

13.13%

NCAA 1994

20.15%

NCAA 1995

18.76%

NCAA 1996

20.65%

NCAA 1997

23.08%

NCAA 1998

26.29%

NCAA 1999

23.54%

NCAA 2000

37.14%

NCAA 2001

21.77%

NCAA 2002

26.27%

NCAA 2003

21.91%

NCAA 2004

29.18%

NCAA 2005

24.94%

NCAA 2006

30.49%

NCAA 2007

7.75%

NCAA 2008

13.30%

 

 

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