Game Predictions

Cowboy Robbery

Kentuckyforev18 — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 13:00:03 -0500

Game Predictions

GameNight: Syracuse vs Florida Preview

Jeff Borzello — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 10:33:26 -0500

Start: Dec 10 2009 - 9:00pm

The best thing about the proliferation of these conference challenges is the number of big-time games it brings to the non-conference season. The SEC/Big East Invitational features two of the pleasant surprises of November in #10 Florida and #7 Syracuse. Although I was higher on the Gators than most pundits in the preseason, not many expected them to defeat Michigan State and be undefeated at this point. As for Syracuse, the Orange dominated the NIT Season Tip-Off, handling California and North Carolina with ease.

Both teams have plenty of talent across the board. Syracuse has been led by Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson, who is averaging 17.0 points and 7.2 rebounds. He has been one of the most impressive players in the country up to this point. Andy Rautins is shooting better than 50 percent from three-point range, and his passing ability and defensive skills have been key. The big man duo of Arinza Onuaku and Rick Jackson are combining to average 20.7 points and 10.9 rebounds. Furthermore, the Orange are getting excellent point guard play from freshman Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine, while forward Kris Joseph is averaging nearly double-figures off the bench.

Florida has been successful due to offensive balance and excellent defense. The go-to-guy for the Gators is freshman guard Kenny Boynton. He is averaging 13.9 points and has a variety of offensive abilities that make him very difficult to defend. His backcourt mate, Erving Walker, is tough to keep out of the lane and is averaging 5.0 assists. Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus are a solid big man duo, and Dan Werner is versatile. Chandler Parsons is averaging 11.1 points off the bench for the Gators. The only other player seeing double-digit minutes is swingman Ray Shipman, who had 10 points in the win over Michigan State.

There are several interesting keys to this game. The first is the fantastic defense both teams have been playing; Syracuse is ranked No. 7 in defensive efficiency by Kenpom.com, while Florida is No. 23. Both teams have plenty of length and athleticism, and can be disruptive in the half-court. The difference will be Syracuse’s versatility on offense. The Orange have players who can score inside, players who can penetrate, as well as guys who can knock down the three. At this point, Florida is not at its peak offensively. The Gators struggle to shoot the three, making them easier to contain, especially with the Syracuse 2-3 zone. The most important player will be Wesley Johnson – Florida has no one to defend him.

Prediction: Syracuse 71, Florida 64

Game Predictions

GameNight: UCONN vs Kentucky Preview

Blake Hofstad — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:31:25 -0500

Start: Dec 9 2009 - 7:00pm

By now, most of you have seen the video of Evan Turner falling on his back, breaking a few bones and writhing in pain. That's an incredible loss for the Buckeyes. Turner was getting some considerable media hype for Player of the Year, and for good reason. He was averaging over 12 rebounds per game...as the team's point guard. Arguably the most versatile guy in college basketball, Turner will now miss two months. That means that his Player of the Year aspirations are all but dashed. The position as early front runner is now up in the air, and we could have a much better idea of who that is after the conclusion of the #12 Connecticut-#4 Kentucky duel in New York. John Wall has been hailed as the next great point guard in the Calipari line. Coach Cal has produced a #1 Draft pick and a #4 Draft pick in the last two years. Both were point guards, both one and dones. Wall is pouring in around 18 points a game and has almost 8 assists per contest as well. The turnovers are a cause for concern, but some will now call him the nation's best player. They might want to wait until late Wednesday night, because another stellar guard will be taking the court. Jerome Dyson has been spectacular for the Huskies. His stat line boasts 20 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists per game, to go along with nearly two steals and a block. In UConn's most recent victory over Harvard, he elevated his game, notching 24 points, 14 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks. That's almost...Turner-esque.

The Wildcats have been led by their young point guard, but the well does not run dry immediately after him. Junior power forward Patrick Patterson decided to come back to school to improve his face up shooting, and Kentucky would miss him sorely. He is averaging around 17 and 10 and has expanded his range considerably. In his first two years in Lexington, Patterson was 0-4 from three point range. He's 6-14 this season. Freshman forward DeMarcus Cousins starts alongside Patterson, and all though he's been solid with 15 points and 8 rebounds a game, to complement 2.5 blocks, he's sporadic. Cousins has enough natural talent to be a top three draft pick a year from now, but he is immature and undisciplined. If the UConn big men, who have done a fantastic job of replacing Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien, can frustrate Cousins early, he will slip up. Small forward Darius Miller has been quietly going about his business. He's consistent, he's not going to score 20 on anyone, but he'll find ways to contribute. After his atrocious performance against Morehead State, he's been pretty good. He will need to be better than good against Connecticut, who deploys the extremely talented Stanley Robinson. Ramon Harris and Daniel Orton come off the bench. Harris is a defensive specialist who can't really create on O. Orton has been a great shot blocker.

Alongside Wall in the backcourt is fellow frosh Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe has turned the ball over way too much considering his assists numbers, but he has also been UK's best three point threat, and has knocked down a few key shots late in games. Between he and Wall, the starting 'Cat guards turn it over almost 9 times a game. Against Carolina, the duo combined for 11 turnovers. That can't happen against UConn. Coming off the bench in relief is Darnell Dodson, the sweet shooting transfer from Miami-Dade Community College. Dodson is almost strictly a shooter, but he's good at what he does.

The three things Kentucky has to do to win are minimize turnovers, rebound the basketball and get to the line. Kentucky turns it over more than almost any other team in college hoops. Meanwhile, Connecticut has two ball hawking guards in Dyson and Kemba Walker. They won't hesitate to pick pockets all game long against the slippery-handed Wildcats. Connecticut is sixth in the nation in rebounding, but they have trouble against great rebounding teams. Kentucky has a much higher rebounding margin, and if they can get second chances on the offensive end, as well as limit the Huskies to one shot, they will win. Kentucky loves to attack the basket with their bigs or their slashing guards. Get to the line, and convert when you get the opportunities.

Replacing Hasheem Thabeet, AJ Price and Jeff Adrien is tough, but UConn isn't doing a bad job. Stanley Robinson has always had All-American talent, he could just never put it together on the court. This season he's doing just that. He should have a big game against Kentucky. Gavin Edwards comes off the bench, but the power forward is a fourth on the team in scoring and plays 30 minutes a game. Everyone expected an expanded role from Edwards after the departure of Thabeet and Adrien, but what he has provided could not have been forecasted. Edwards has become simply lethal every time he takes a shot. He is shooting a staggering 71% from the floor, and has missed one free throw in 22 attempts. That's incredible. Oh yeah, he's also swatting 3.3 shots a game. Sound familiar, UConn fans? Starting down low at center is freshman Alex Oriakhi, who is picking up the rebounding load vacated by Adrien while Edwards picks up the points. Oriakhi is averaging just 6 points a game, but leads the team in rebounds at 10 per. Another new face, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, is the sixth and final Husky averaging over ten minutes a game. Coombs-McDaniel tosses in 4 points and 2 boards a game. The final starter, Charles Okwandu, doesn't see much action. In reality, he's not really a threat on offense yet. He's raw, and has the potential to become a good player.

Dyson and Kemba Walker lead the guards, and they dish out about 11 assists a game between the two of them. They are really the only viable options at guard. Donnell Beverly only plays 8 minutes a game. It's important that Dyson and Walker stay under control against a frenetic Kentucky basketball team. They can't start turning it over, they can't get tired and they can't pick up cheap fouls on the perimeter. Both Walker and Dyson fouled out against Duke, and Dyson has had four fouls three other times. Because of the lack of depth in the Connecticut backcourt, it's imperative that Walker and Dyson are on the court for 35+ minutes.

Connecticut can win this game if they can make their three pointers, force the freshmen into mistakes and win the battle down low. Kentucky should susceptibility early on to hot shooting teams. Walker is the best shooter for UConn, and Dyson can knock down threes, too. They both need to be firing, and connecting, on their long range J's. The freshman trio of Wall, Cousins and Bledsoe combine to turn the ball over almost more than Connecticut's entire team. It's not inconceivable to think that the Huskies could force 15 turnovers among those three alone. If they can do that, they can derail UK's offensive rhythm, as well as get some easy chances on the other end. Scoring on Kentucky down low has been murder. Cousins, Orton and Patterson form to make the post nearly impenetrable. However, Connecticut should try to establish a post game early. Robinson is versatile enough to score on the low block, and if Edwards can get going, then UConn's chances of a win increase dramatically.

Ultimately, Kentucky is deeper than Connecticut, but it won't matter if they get in foul trouble early on. However, Kentucky always finds a way to win. That won't change at Madison Square Garden, as the 'Cats skate by, 78-76.

Game Predictions

GameNight: Duke vs Wisconsin Preview

Blake Hofstad — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 11:47:44 -0500

Start: Dec 2 2009 - 9:15pm

Duke Team Stats / Roster

Wisconsin Team Stats / Roster

The ACC/Big Ten Challenge has long been the ACC’s to lose. Last year, the Big Ten came close, putting up a good fight but ultimately succumbing to a 6-5 defeat. This year may provide the best shot the Big Ten has ever had in winning their first Challenge. A victory may hinge on the outcome of the result of #5 Duke’s (6-0) journey to the Kohl Center to do battle with Wisconsin (5-1). Coach K’s Blue Devils looked both convincing yet shaky in a win over UConn, never being in danger of losing the contest despite shooting a paltry 30% from the floor. A road win over Wisconsin is no easy feat, as the Badgers have posted a 122-10 record there during Bo Ryan’s tenure. If Duke is to leave Madison with a win, they will have to do better from the field than they did against the Huskies.

Although Kyle Singler was heralded as The Man for the Dookies entering the year, it has been Jon Scheyer who has risen to the challenge thus far. Through his first six games, the senior combo guard has been nearly flawless with the basketball, turning it over just three times. There was much speculation as to how he would perform against UConn, a team that features stout defender Jerome Dyson in its backcourt. He passed the test, netting 19 points while doling out five assists despite a bad shooting night. Perhaps the biggest stat was the two turnovers he recorded. He has delivered six solid outings in six chances. His backcourt mate is Nolan Smith. Looking eager after being benched to current Memphis point guard Elliot Williams, Smith was knocking down three pointers at a blistering rate through his first two games. He went a combined 1-10 against Arizona State and UConn, and had a 1-3 assist/turnover ratio in those games. If his performance continues to sag, look for Kryzewski to turn to freshman guard Andre Dawkins for relief. Dawkins has been the most reliable option off the bench, and is the only guard off the bench who can be expected to do much damage. He’s found 17 minutes of playing time in each of Duke’s two big games; expect him to replicate that number against the Badgers. In the frontcourt, Kyle Singler is definitely the player to watch. Lauded as one of the most versatile players in the country, Singler has gotten off to a decent start. He had a porous night shooting the ball against the Huskies, but he was able to chip in with 8 boards and 4 dimes. Alleviating his burden this year has been Mason Plumlee, like Dawkins, just a freshman. Plumlee has been good for 7 points and 8 rebounds per contest, although he struggled in the Blue Devil’s matchup with UConn. Senior Lance Thomas rounds out the starting five, a strong hustle player whose contributions aren’t always obvious. Coming off the bench is Brian Zoubek, the big seven footer. Zoubek will be the tallest guy in action on Wednesday night. He does not possess extreme athleticism, but if he can eat up space, Wisconsin will be forced to look elsewhere for points. Ryan Kelly, Jordan Davidson and Olek Czyz will be inserted sparingly.

The key for Duke is to keep up their defensive intensity. They are only allowing opponents to connect on just over 35% of their shots. Wisconsin shot very poorly against Arizona and Gonzaga at Maui, so it’s critical that Duke maintain their impressive defense and not allow Wisconsin to get open looks. The Badgers missed a lot of good opportunities against the Zags, but looked much better against Maryland, and now they have a home court advantage, the first true road test for Coach K’s boys all year.

Despite the graduation of starters Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisconsin took third in Maui. Much of the credit can be attributed to senior point guard Trevon Hughes, who has elevated his game at the offensive level, leading the team in scoring at nearly 15 points per contest. Hughes was the lone semblance of consistency in the Islands, dropping 14+ in every outing and harassing high profile opponents Nic Wise, Matt Bouldin and Greivis Vasquez on the other end. Hughes is the catalyst for this team. He needs to neutralize Scheyer while maintaining his offensive production. His backcourt partner, Jason Bohannon, is not particularly strong in any area except shooting. When Bohannon couldn’t hit his threes against the Bulldogs of Gonzaga, Wisconsin lost. He recovered against Maryland, and the Badgers rolled. His job is simple; make the three pointers that Duke has all but eliminated in the early portion of their season. Providing relief for Hughes and Bohannon is Jordan Taylor, who has been spectacular as the sixth man. He pours in around 7 points a game, but the most impressive part has been his ability to play with or without Hughes on the floor and run the offense with little to no drop off. He is averaging around 3 dimes a game, tops on the team. The Badgers frontcourt is much deeper than just a year before. Jon Leuer has been unstoppable in the low post, connecting on over 65% of his shots inside the arc. It is absolutely imperative that he continue to get the ball, and continue to convert. On the rare Leuer miss, Keaton Nankivil has picked up the pieces, becoming a garbage man under the hoop. Nankivil gets around 2 offensive rebounds a game, and nearly always makes them count. If the Blue Devils continue to play defense at a high level, Nankivil will need to assert himself against a taller front line and get second chances. Tim Jarmusz is the swingman, and he won’t do anything eye-popping, but just plays consistent basketball. Bo Ryan knows what he’s getting from Jarmusz, a solid five points, four rebounds, a steal here, an assist there…Jarmusz is an unheralded player that quietly goes about his business. Two freshman relievers will find themselves on the floor early and often. Ryan Evans may be the most athletic player the Badgers have had in years. He has a quick first step, and will be called upon for his rebounding ability. Mike Bruesewitz is a hard-nosed player who rebounds incredibly well for someone his size (6-7). He should be able to hold his own against the tall but shallow Duke forwards.

Trevon Hughes has gained a reputation as an ACC killer, for his last second heroics against Virginia Tech in last year’s Challenge, and his clutch play in Wisconsin’s opening round NCAA Tournament date with the Seminoles of Florida State. He may need to be called upon again in what should be a close game.

If the Badgers are to win this game, it will be because Leuer establishes himself early, freeing up the Badger marksmen for open threes. They had a lot of them in Maui, but in only one game were they able to make the most of those chances. If they aren’t able to capitalize at home, things could get ugly.

Duke should win this one, but it won’t be as easy as their lofty ranking suggests. Based on home records vs. away records in the last ten years, Wisconsin has a bigger home court advantage than any other school. That can’t be discounted. Last time these teams met, Duke easily disposed of the Badgers. That was at Cameron Indoor. This time around, Wisconsin gets a shot at the Kohl Center. However, that won’t be enough, as the Blue Devils pull away late to the tune of 71-64.

PREDICTION: Duke MARGIN: 7

Best of the Rest: Here are my selections for games that look like they could have lasting impressions in the college basketball season, but don’t quite match up to the marquee event of the night.

Old Dominion 65 at Richmond 71
Siena 68 at Georgia Tech 78
Illinois 61 at Clemson 70
Oklahoma State 74 at Tulsa 61
California 61 at New Mexico 59
UNLV 81 at Arizona 69
Missouri 71 at Vanderbilt 74
BYU 76 at Utah State 67
Washington State 57 at Gonzaga 72
Florida State 60 at Ohio State 73

Duke Basketball

CBB Projected lines/totals Tuesday 11/24

Ed Bemiss — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:31:04 -0500

Game Predictions

CBB Projected lines and totals

Ed Bemiss — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:02:25 -0500

Game Predictions