South Region Game Preview: 8 LSU vs 9 Butler

LSU Tigers

Record: 26-7
Conference: SEC (13-3, 1st)
RPI: No. 37 (vs. Butler #24)
Last Five: 2-3

Other stats:
Scoring Margin: +7.3
Rebounding margin: +4.6
3-Point %: 36.9
FT%: 71.8

Notes:

You know it’s a down year for a Big Six conference when the top-seeded team, the LSU Tigers, is playing in an 8-9 NCAA tournament game. That’s the sad reality of the SEC. Still, the Bayou Bengals are no pushover. This is a team that won 26 games and features one of the most explosive players in the country -- SEC Player of the Year Marcus Thornton. On offense, LSU looks to spread the opposition's defense wide and let their long, athletic wings slash to the rack or kick out for 3’s. On defense, LSU’s length makes the Tigers one of the best shot blocking teams in the country (six per game). But overall, their success largely hinges on knocking down shots. In their last four games—three of which ended in losses—LSU failed to shoot better than 40 percent from the field.

Starters

LSU PG Spencer, Bo 6’1 180 SO
PPG: 11.6, RPG: 2.9, APG: 2.6
Butler PG Nored, Ronald 6’0 170lbs FR
PPG: 4.2, RPG: 3.1, APG: 2.6

Spencer is a speedy point guard with great shooting range. In fact, 48 percent of the shots he makes are 3’s. The Tigers will get a nice scoring boost if Spencer can hit his scoring average. On Butler’s side, Nored’s play has steadily improved after a mid-season slump. While he lacks consistency on the offensive end,Nored always brings it defensively . Whether it’s Spencer or Thornton, expect Nored to know the flavor of chewing gum of whomever he is guarding.

Advantage: LSU

LSU G Thornton, Marcus 6’4 205lbs SR
PPG: 20.7, RPG: 5.5, APG: 2.1
Butler SG Mack, Shelvin 6’3 185lbs FR
PPG: 11.7, RPG: 4.3, APG: 3.5

Marcus “Rosebud” Thornton has been a thorn in the side of opponents all season. (Thanks for the cliché assist, Shawn.) In terms of explosiveness, he trumps anyone Butler has played this season. (Calm down, Bulldogs fans. Steph Curry was not 100 percent. End of story.) Containing the SEC POY will be one of the keys to the game. For Butler, Mack is really a poor man’s version of Thornton, minus the crazy athleticism. The key for Mack is consistency. He’ll need to have a strong game for the Bulldogs to win.

Advantage: LSU

LSU G Temple, Garrett 6’6 190lbs SR
PPG: 7.2, RPG: 4.5, APG: 3.8
Butler G Hayward, Gordon 6’8 180lbs FR
PPG: 13.2, RPG: 6.5, APG: 1.9

Similar to Willie Veasley, Temple may be LSU's most under-appreciated player. He does a little of everything on both sides of the ball, including leading the team in assists. Butler's Hayward plays his best against big time opponents (see: @Ohio State, @Xavier, @Davidson). Those games have put the Horizon League Newcomer of the Year on the national scene, with some experts lauding his pro potential. CHN named Hayward, along with Thornton, as one of the top 65 players in the tournament.

Advantage: Butler

LSU F Mitchell, Tasmin 6’7 235lbs JR
PPG: 16.3, RPG: 7.2, APG: 1.9
Butler F Veasley, Willie 6’3 190lbs JR
PPG: 8.9, RPG: 4.3, APG: 1.3

Tasmin is no stranger to the Big Dance. As a freshman, he averaged double digits for LSU’s Final Four team. Now, Mitchell is one of the top players in the SEC. He takes a back seat in terms of national recognition to Thornton, but he can dominate down low on any given day. Evidence: He dropped 41 points at Miss St in February. Veasley, Butler’s most experienced and best defender, will have his hands full with Mitchell. On offense, Veasley consistently scores 8-12 points a game.

Advantage: LSU

LSU C Johnson, Chris 6’11 210lbs SR
PPG: 7.6 RPG: 7.3, APG: 1.2
Butler C Howard, Matt 6’8 220lbs SO
PPG: 14.6, RPG: 6.7, APG: 1.1

Johnson makes his impact on the defense end with his length, averaging 2.6 blocks. However, he has a tendency to get out muscled. Meanwhile, last season, Butler’s Howard was thoroughly outplayed in the NCAA Round of 32 against Tennessee. With that performance in mind, he vowed to get stronger and faster in the off season. This Thursday, the Horizon League POY has the opportunity to show his improvement. Butler’s offense ticks when he is in the game, and foul trouble by the “Hobbit-Haired” forward will likely spell doom for Butler.

Advantage: Butler

Bench

LSU
G/F Martin, Terry 6’6 210lbs SR PPG: 4.7, RPG: 2.4, APG: 1.1
F Thornton, Quintin 6’9 235lbs JR PPG: 3.0, RPG: 1.4, APG: 0.6

Butler
G Hahn, Zach 6’0 170lbs SO PPG: 5.3, RPG: 1.2, APG: 0.9
F Butcher, Garrett 6’7 190lbs FR PPG: 2.6, RPG: 1.5, APG: 0.2
G Vanzant, Shawn 6’1 175lbs SO PPG: 3.6, RPG: 1.7, APG: 1.0

LSU receives most of its scoring from its starters. Martin and Quintin Thornton bring size and experience off the bench, but aren’t game changers. Butler’s bench scoring is led by Hahn, who is a three-point specialist. However, expect the more-defensively sound Vanzant and Butcher to see the most bench minutes.

Advantage: Butler

Final Analysis:
Clearly this is a matchup of LSU’s athleticism and experience versus Butler’s fundamentals and defense. Both teams are well coached, and it will be interesting to see what strategies Trent Johnson and Brad Stevens will employ. Butler comes in as slight underdogs but can win by controlling the pace of play, containing Thornton, and knocking down at least a handful of 3’s. Likewise, LSU’s outside shooting will be a key to the game. If Thornton gets hot, Butler is in trouble.

Prediction: Butler 69, LSU 68

Your thoughts: It’s tournament time! I can’t wait to take a super extended lunch break on Thursday. Now I know you have an opinion about the game, so let’s hear em. What team will have the pleasure of facing North Carolina in Greensboro on Saturday?